Who Has the Edge in Florida’s CD1 Race—Joel Rudman or Gene Valentino?

The race to succeed Matt Gaetz in Florida’s 1st Congressional District is shaping up to be a crowded, high-stakes battle in one of the most conservative districts in the nation.

While several candidates have entered the fray, two names stand out: state Rep. Joel Rudman and former Escambia County Commissioner Gene Valentino.

Each brings unique strengths to the race, but who has the edge?

Joel Rudman: The “Natural Successor”

Navarre Republican Joel Rudman has positioned himself as the heir apparent to Matt Gaetz.

As a state representative and physician, Rudman has cultivated a reputation for standing his ground on controversial issues, from opposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates to advocating for health care providers’ rights to decline services based on moral or religious objections.

Rudman has embraced his role as a fighter, telling The Florida Phoenix: “We are carved from the same rock. Like Matt, I’m no stranger to controversy.”

However, Rudman’s advocacy for Medicaid expansion—a move that cost him significant legislative wins—might complicate his bid in a district where conservative orthodoxy reigns supreme.

His support for repealing key provisions of the Affordable Care Act could win back some of that lost favor among GOP voters.

Rudman’s messaging suggests he’s ready to channel Gaetz’s combative style while steering clear of policies that stray too far from the district’s hard-right leanings.

Gene Valentino: The Media Savvy Challenger

Gene Valentino, a familiar face on Newsmax and a former Escambia County Commissioner, enters the race with a different kind of leverage—media exposure and connections to Republican power players.

Valentino’s ties to U.S. Senator Rick Scott and President-elect Donald Trump give him a distinct advantage in fundraising, an area where Rudman may struggle to compete.

With a long history in public service and a polished media presence, Valentino has the potential to outpace his opponents in visibility and fundraising—a critical factor in a race this competitive.

Who Has the Edge?

While Rudman’s legislative experience and alignment with Gaetz’s combative style make him a strong contender, Valentino’s media clout and high-profile endorsements give him a significant edge in a race that will require substantial financial backing and broad name recognition.

Rudman’s appeal lies in his ability to frame himself as a grassroots conservative, a fighter for Northwest Florida values.

But Valentino’s connections and polished campaign could draw in both the MAGA base and establishment Republicans.

In a district where Gaetz-style populism thrives, Valentino’s media-savvy approach and insider connections might just give him the edge.

As the race unfolds, key endorsements and the candidates’ ability to mobilize voters will likely decide who emerges as the frontrunner.

For now, Valentino’s combination of political and media credentials positions him as the candidate to beat, but Rudman’s claim as the “natural successor” to Gaetz ensures this race will be anything but predictable.

Stay tuned—this is only the beginning.